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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (March 28)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3252.95 points. A-share market got strong support at 3250 points level, even though the volume tapered off significantly and newly-listed stocks tumbled. Only Electronic Components sector advanced; while Light Manufacturing and Textile& Apparel sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 465.6bn, down 13.28% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3252.95

-0.43

203.45

4.81

Shenzhen

10563.29

-0.18

262.41

3.79

CSI 300

3469.81

-0.24

97.50

4.83

ChiNext

1944.36

-0.16

70.89

-0.90

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Electronic Components

002845

   

Downward-leading

Light Manufacturing

603165

Textile& Apparel

300591

 

NEWS

*Huishan Dairy confirms missed interest payments as treasury head incommunicado. Huishan Dairy, whose shares plunged 90 per cent last week in Hong Kong, has confirmed it met with nearly two dozen creditors after failing to make interest payments and revealed it has lost contact with the head of its treasury operations. In a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange, Huishan Dairy confirmed it had been unable to make interest payments. The company said chairman and controlling shareholder Yang Kai had learned of the late payments on March 21. That same day, it also lost contact with Ge Kun, an executive director responsible for branding who oversees treasury and cash operations – including expenses – at the company, and had managed relationships with Huishan Dairy’s principle bankers. (Financial Times)

*S Africa's trade ministry signs MOU on cooperation with Bank of China. South Africa's Ministry of Trade and Industry on Monday signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on strategic cooperation with Bank of China in Johannesburg to strengthen the relations between the two entities. The MOU will enable both parties to treat each other as a preferred partner and share information on investment opportunities. (Xinhua)

*New home sales rise again in Shanghai. A rebound in home-buying sentiment continued in Shanghai last week but the overall momentum in the market remained lackluster, latest industry data showed. The area of new homes sold, excluding government-funded affordable housing, rose 10.3 percent to 180,000 square meters during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, Shanghai Centaline Property Consultants Co said in a report. (Shanghai Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12750




Technical Analysis

Cocoa (CC) Nearing Daily Chart Upchannel Support


Cocoa (CC) edged higher yesterday as it continued its week long consolidation following the previous 2 weeks of rally.  CC closed yesterday near upchannel support (on the 4hr and daily chart), and given its still strongly upsloping weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD, has higher odds of bouncing off this upchannel support (then breaking below it).  Nevertheless, shorter term bulls will want to wait for the 4hr MACD to begin perking up again before jumping in with fresh longs.  I am flat and will look to enter long intraday (in the green zone of the daily chart) with an upside target in the red zone following Article 50 Wednesday.

 

Cocoa (ICE CC May17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Arabica Coffee, Corn

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


12748




Macro

European Market Outlook: Lacklustre Asia-Pac Session Supports Risk on Trade Amid Thin Volumes; Calendar Rich in Fedspeak


Morning Briefing March 28th 2017


Tuesday throws up a very quiet data day, particularly in Europe, although there is plenty of central bank action on the schedule.

The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, when ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks at the third OFR-ECB-Bank of England workshop, in Frankfurt.

At 0705GMT, Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves discusses the current economic situation and monetary policy challenges, in Stockholm.

The only scheduled European data is expected at 0800GMT, with the release of the Italian February industrial orders.

ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure sits on a panel discussion on 'ECB transparency and accountability', in Brussels, starting at 1145GMT. Across the Atlantic, the main US data releases are expected at 1230GMT, with the publication of the advance trade and business inventories data.

At 1255GMT, the latest Redbook Retail Sales Index is set for release. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released at 1300GMT.

The March Richmond Fed Survey and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence data are expected at 1400GMT.

Bundesbank Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele speech at Market Infrastructure Focus Session, in Frankfurt at the same time.

The Dallas Fed March Services Survey is expected at 1430GMT.

At 1645GMT, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George gives a keynote speech about the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy at Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking in Midwest City, Okla., with audience Q&A.

At 1650GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives a speech on "Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities" at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

Federal Reserve Bank Gov. Jerome Powell speaks on the history and structure of the Fed at a West Virginia University College of Business and Economics event in Morgantown, W.Va., with audience Q&A, starting at 2030GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: *** Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

- Nikkei 225 up 201 points at 19,184.64

- ASX 200 up 63 points at 5,810.70

- Shanghai Comp. down 7.25 points at 3,259.37

- JGB 10-Year future down 3 ticks at 150.44

- JGB 10-Year yield up 0.5bp at 0.061%

- Aussie 3-Yr future up 1 tick at 98.05, 3-Year yield down 0.7bp at 1.904%

- Aussie 10-Yr future up 1 tick at 97.265, 10-Year yield down 1.2bp at 2.696%

- US 10-Year future unch at 124.21+  * FED'S KAPLAN SAYS FED SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY AND PATIENTLY

* ODEXA POLL SEES MACRON AS BEST PRESIDENT

US TSYS: Treasuries prices and US rates generally ended Mon firmer but well off the midmorning risk-off mood rally highs attained after last Friday's Trump admin House healthcare bill pulled which spurred risk off. Tsys ebbed on pre-auction short sets, mild post-auction redistribution salesafter a fairly good 2Y auction. Light fast$ sales in intermediate tenors. Tsy markets opened Asia quietly with a fairly light session ahead. T-Note futures opened Asia at 124.20+, last at 124.21+, yields so far unchanged after falling 3.4bp in the 10-Year from the Friday close.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie bonds have seen a quiet open in what is expected to be a subdued session, markets have calmed somewhat after Fridays US Healthcare Bill shock which has cast doubts on Trumps political capital. Aussie bond futures traded in a range on SYCOM, the 3-Year closed unchanged at 98.04, moving in a range of 98.04 to 98.07. The 10-Year closed down 0.5 ticks at 97.25, moving in a range of 97.24 to 97.28. The SFE open has been similarly subdued, 3-Year future is unchanged at 98.04, 10-Year unchanged at 97.25. Yields are marginally higher across the curve, the belly outperforming the wings: 10-Year yield is 0.7bp higher at 2.715%.

AUSSIE BONDS: AUCTION RESULTS: The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$150mln of 2.00% 2035 Index Linked bonds. - Yield: 1.093% (prev. 0.6155%) - Cover: 5.63 (prev. 1.00).

JGBS: JGB's have dropped in early Asia-Pac trade on Tuesday, extending their move lower during European/US hours. Risk sentiment in Asia has seen a dramatic swing from yesterday, the Nikkei 225 is 185 points higher after falling around 268 points yesterday. JGB futures opened European trade at 150.48 and gradually worked their way down to 150.44 to retrace around half of Monday's upward move. At the open of the Japanese session JGB futures sold off to briefly touch 150.38, dip buyers saw JGB futures rise to 150.40 with some talk of real money buying. Yields are higher across the curve; moves are mixed, seeing gains of between 0.1bp and 1.1bp.

OIL: Oil has moved slightly higher in Asia-Pac trade, but is still hovering just below $48.00/bbl at $47.99, up $0.26 on the session. DXY has been flat during the Asia session, maintaining at low levels around 99.20 which has helped oil. Any rise in oil is being moderated by expectations for another rise in crude stockpiles at the API and DoE inventory data releases on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Oil is now around $1/bbl higher than the nadir last week at $47.00/bbl, the lowest since November 2016.

GOLD: Risk on sentiment has helped equity indices today, but gold has proven resilient and is holding near its one-month high. This is attributed to US$ remaining unattractive after political events on Friday, namely the withdrawal of the US Healthcare Bill. This in turn has kept DXY subdued, last at 99.20 only marginally higher than its recent low of 98.858 - Gold is last down $0.46 at $1,254.41. In terms of catalysts in the upcoming session the session will be rich in Fedspeak with speeches from Fed's Yellen, George, Kaplan and Powell.

FOREX: A very lacklustre session for the Asia-Pacific region, with little in the way of economic data to encourage trading, the dollar was mostly unmoved against its peers. Dollar-yen opened at Y110.66 and carved out a Y110.55 to Y110.83 range. The market all but ignored the Nikkei 225, now in the Tokyo lunch break up 1.07%. Aussie climbed steadily from $0.7613 to $0.7635 mainly on Aussie-kiwi demand from macro names. Aussie was last at $0.7630. Meanwhile, euro-dollar currently trades at $1.0864 and Cable at $1.2567 after trading in respective ranges of $1.0855 to $1.0869 and $1.2556 to $1.2571.).

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (M17) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 161.78 High Mar 3
*RES 3: 161.60 High Mar 2
*RES 2: 161.00 High Mar 27
*RES 1: 160.44 Hourly support Mar 27 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.27

*SUP 1: 160.15 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 160.04 Hourly support Mar 24
*SUP 3: 159.73 Low Mar 24
*SUP 4: 159.38 Alternating hourly support/resistance    

*COMMENTARY: Bulls managed to work their way through layers of resistance Monday only to have the break above 160.81 rejected and the contract remaining heavy at the close. The 159.73 support remains key. Bears need a close below 159.73 to gain breathing room and return pressure to the 158.73-159.09 supports. The lack of follow through Monday is a concern with bulls now needing a close above 160.44 to gain breathing room and above 161.00 to shift focus higher.

 

EUROSTOXX50: 3324.94-3390.04 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 3524.04 Monthly High Nov 30 2015
*RES 3: 3479.34 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 3471.50 2017 High Mar 2
*RES 1: 3452.26 High Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3437.14

*SUP 1: 3411.48 Low Mar 27
*SUP 2: 3406.16 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 3390.04 Low Mar 14
*SUP 4: 3381.21 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bears are unable to capitalize on dips with the index bouncing from ahead of the 21-DMA and layers of support once more. Layers of support remain with bears needing a close below 3390.04 to hint at a correction and below 3324.94 to end bullish hopes and shift focus lower. Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls who currently focus on tests of 3471.50 with overall focus on the 3524.04 Nov 2015 monthly high.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


 

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12749




Macro

Cold hard facts for US economic outlook


Welcome to this Real Vision TV interview taster. Dr Lacy Hunt, one of the world's most respected economic thinkers, weighs in with some cold hard facts in relation to the new US administration's fiscal proposals, while putting some perspective around structural weakness in the US growth story and the constraints to GDP. Watch the full interview on Real Vision TV now.

Real Vision TV is the world's first video on demand platform for finance and investing. It features in-depth, short-form and long-form interviews, presentations and documentaries with the world’s best investors, independent analysts, economists, geo-political strategists and policy makers. It now has paying subscribers in over 100 countries around the world. Our customers include some of the world’s most famous money managers along with students, RIA's, investment professionals, financial service professionals and home investors.

This video is from Real Vision TV and is being posted with Real Vision TV’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Real Vision TV  and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12745




Options

Volatility 411


CBOETV - Jamie Tyrrell, Group One Trading, discusses traders exiting long call positions on VIX pop.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12747




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