IBKR Quant Blog


1 2 3 4 5 2 2030


Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Corn (ZC) Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross


Corn (ZC) is trying to form the 7th green daily candle in 10 days, but is struggling to maintain the rally as seen by the daily Doji beginning to form.  Significantly, ZC is bumping up against upchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart) and horizontal resistance (on the daily chart).  After at least a few days of consolidation, ZC will likely test downchannel resistance (on the daily chart) with any successful breakout quickly followed by a probe of downtrend/descending triangle resistance (on the weekly chart).  Nevertheless, traders will continue remaining on edge this week for any developments around the ongoing US and China trade deal negotiations.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish or rallying.  I will look to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for late week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

Corn (CME ZC May19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on Wheat, VIX

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


23286




Futures

Blue Line Futures : Tradable Events this Week


In recent weeks, we described an economic inflection point. Our theme was to learn from the upcoming data with the Federal Reserve’s quarterly meeting in sight. It’s now in the rear-view mirror and we learned a lot. The Fed and ECB both turned dovish and the data has been messy. Last week, the Fed projected no hikes in 2018 and announced they will end unwinding their balance sheet in September. Coupled with the ECB reintroducing TLTRO in September, it makes you wonder what these central banks see on the horizon. On Friday, German Manufacturing PMI came in at 44.7, the lowest since September 2012. The German 10-year Bund yield went negative for the first time since October 2016 (the ECB cut rates in March 2016). In the U.S, Manufacturing and Services PMI both missed expectations. This was the latest in a string of Manufacturing misses and the worst read since summer 2017 (Philly Fed Manufacturing did beat on Thursday). Amidst this weakness, the spread between 3-month and 10-year rates went negative on Friday for the first time since 2007. This is a recessionary signal and the spread between 2-year and 5-year rates went negative nearly four months ago. The CME’s FedWatch Tool now has only a 42.1% probability the Fed leaves rates unchanged this year. To clarify, there is now a 57.9% chance the Fed cuts rates in 2019!

In the week ahead, we look to more data and fresh Fed speak. German Business Climate is due Monday and Consumer Climate Tuesday. March U.S Consumer Confidence will be crucial on Tuesday and there is a slew of housing data through the week. Revised estimates on Q4 GDP are due Thursday. There are no less than six 2019 voting Fed members that speak with Chicago Fed President Evans and Boston Fed President Rosengren leading things off Monday.

The aforementioned recessionary signals typically do not force a stock market correction immediately but are instead considered a precursor to a day of reckoning. Equity markets did finish under pressure on Friday. While this was certainly in part due to the poor data globally, the imminent release of Special Counsel Mueller’s report also likely played a key factor. Still, the S&P is up more than 20% this year. What we can gauge now that the Fed has shown their cards, bad economic data seems to be bad again and good data, such as Philly Fed Manufacturing on Thursday, should be good for stocks. As for Mueller’s report, there are no new indictments and there could be more details today (Sunday). U.S and China trade is back in the headlines with U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer and U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin traveling to Beijing this week for a new round of high-level talks set to begin Thursday. These talks typically produce positive headlines that lift stocks, but we have yet to see any real substance.

Lastly, a dovish Fed, poor data and a weak equity market on Friday all played a role securing a breakout in our favorite chart, the 10-year Treasury Note (below). In last week’s Tradable Events, we pointed out that one of the Treasury market’s most bullish attributes is how heavily positioned the Leveraged shorts are and not only in the 10-year but across all durations. As of last Tuesday, the near record Leveraged short position stood at 1,292,981 and longs at 337,579. Such a heavy short position upon this upside breakout is bound to spark a short-covering rally this week. The only headwind is this week’s auctions. However, for months, we have said lower price action due to fresh supply is a buying opportunity. 

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

23285




Macro

Interactive Brokers - The Market Giveth, The Market Taketh Away


Equity markets have had a very difficult time establishing a direction after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.  We entered the announcement with lower indices, pushed down by the President’s acknowledgment that China trade talks were proceeding more slowly than expected.  We then rallied upon the market’s perception of a dovish tone from the Fed announcement.  We then turned lower as the market began to worry that Chairman Powell’s conciliatory tone was actually in response to weaker global economic conditions.

As one of those who believe that the conciliatory tone was indeed prompted by economic weakness, I was confounded by the ferocity of yesterday’s rally.  We saw the usual buy the dip crowd appear in response to some pre-market futures selling, but the buying continued throughout the session.  My morning market commentary questioned how the equity markets could remain sanguine in the face of a yield curve that had inverted out to 7 years with 10-year notes nearing an inversion.  Inverted yield curves, while not a perfect harbinger of doom, usually do not bode well for economic growth.

I fretted that while markets climb a wall of worry, I seemed to be one of the few worrywarts left.  Today I seem to have quite a bit of company.

Most of us in the US awoke to lower futures after a slew of tepid, if not chilly, economic releases in Europe.  Yields on 10-year notes fell below their 3-month and 2-year counterparts, signaling a deeper yield curve inversion, and the equity markets plunged below their Wednesday lows.  In hindsight, yesterday’s rally seems like a misguided last gasp of the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that institutional investors displayed this quarter.

Despite today’s sell-off, we haven’t yet seen significant fear burst out.  The VIX index has risen 2 points, or 15%, but remains below 16.  I would assert that fear will not have meaningfully surpassed greed until that index begins a flirtation with the 20 level.

Market participants would be well advised to watch the tone early next week with a jaundiced eye.  A snapback rally without significant news flow is likely to be suspicious, as it would be much healthier for equity markets to consolidate before retesting yesterday’s highs.  If the weekend news flow takes a negative turn, however, we could continue to see the markets churn lower. 

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There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23283




Fixed Income

Interactive Brokers - The U.S. Week Ahead (Mar 25-Apr 1)


Hawks and Doves to Descend on the World

Several voting members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will grace podiums across the globe in the week ahead to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

The long list of prepared remarks and Q&A’s follows the FOMC’s decision Wednesday to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5%, and generally struck a more dovish-than-expected tone in its monetary policy stance.

The Fed noted that while it continues to expect sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation close to its 2% objective, global economic and financial headwinds and muted inflation pressures largely spurred the policymakers to reiterate that they will remain “patient,” as they determine what future adjustments may be appropriate.

 

 

Briefing.com’s chief market analyst Patrick O’Hare highlighted that the Fed, among other things, said it doesn't expect to raise interest rates again this year, when roughly three months ago, it anticipated raising interest rates two times in 2019. 

He continued that “it seemed out of character for a typically prudent Fed to go from two expected rate hikes to no rate hikes in a short period of time.

“It's a shift dictated by a belief that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that current data, which shows muted inflation and solid growth, doesn't signal a need to move rates in any direction, according to Fed Chair Powell.”

In his subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell attributed his optimism about the central bank’s outlook on the economy to strength in U.S. economic fundamentals, including a strong labor market, low unemployment, rising incomes, as well as “attractive levels” of household and business confidence.

The Fed anticipates growth of around 2% in 2019, just south of the prior year’s rate.

In terms of balance sheet normalization, the FOMC committed to reducing its Treasury security holdings by halving the cap on monthly redemptions from the current level of US$30bn to US$15bn starting in May 2019. It further intends to arrest the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) at the end of September 2019.

Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and Thomas Simons said they expect the FOMC “to slow the rate normalization process and be more data dependent going forward as policymakers probe their way toward a neutral fed funds rate estimate of 3%.

“Due to the combination of the effect of the trade war on commodities markets in general since mid-2018, and the related weakness in energy prices, inflation is very likely to hold below the Fed’s 2% target at least into Q2 this year.”

McCarthy and Simons added that “it is likely to be several months before the FOMC resumes the rate normalization process with the next rate hike,” adding that monetary policy going forward will be “significantly more difficult to anticipate in advance due to combination of increased data dependence, a softer tone to the inflation data and the flexibility to make policy changes at every meeting.”

Against this backdrop, a slew of Fed speakers is set to deliver their views on monetary policy and the economy at podiums across the globe.

Market participants may start the parade of speeches, along with salient economic updates, including personal income and spending, housing, retail sales, GDP and manufacturing.

 

The busy week kicks off with:

Monday, March 25

  • Event: OMFIF City Lecture, Economic Outlook (London, UK)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker (non-voter) speaks and answers questions

Economy

  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Mar)

 

Tuesday, March 26

  • Event: Chicago Booth Alumni - US Federal Reserve Policy: Influence and Impact on Hong Kong, Asia and the Global Economy (Hong Kong)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans (voter) and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren (voter) will discuss with former US Federal Reserve governor Randy Kroszner their views on US monetary policy and what they see as key risks to the domestic economy and globally.

They will also set to talk about the impact balance sheet reduction has had on financial conditions, as well as issues that factor into their determination of the ultimate size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet.

  • Event: Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference (Hong Kong)

Reserve Bank of Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren (voter) gives a keynote address on Federal Reserve balance sheet decisions and market volatility

  • Event: Ninth OMFIF Economists Meeting (Frankfurt)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker (non-voter) provides his economic outlook

  • Event: The Commonwealth Club: Managing Inflation in the Current Economy (San Francisco)

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly (non-voter) to talk about the benefits / drawbacks of subdued inflation after ten years of historic economic expansion.

Economy

  • Housing Starts (Feb)
  • S&P / Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jan)
  • American Petroleum Institute (API) Crude Oil Stocks

 

Wednesday, March 27

  • Event: Money Marketeers of New York University (New York)

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Esther George (voter) scheduled to speak at 5:30pm EDT

Economy

  • Trade Balance (Feb)
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks

 

Thursday, March 28

  • Event: Bank of France panel discussion: “Facing Global Shocks” (Paris)

Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida (voter) participates in talks moderated by Martin Wolf, Financial Times

  • Event: Agriculture and Community Banking – Telephone Town Hall (Deming, New Mexico)

Federal Reserve governor Michelle "Miki" Bowman (voter) will be the opening speaker for the 2019 ICBA/NM Ag Lenders Conference

  • Event: European Central Bank Conference (Frankfurt)

Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles (voter) to give a keynote speech about financial stability

  • Event: Economic conditions and recovery efforts (Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams (voter) will take part in a moderated discussion in San Juan, Puerto Rico as part of his two-day visit to the territory, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI), where he is also set to meet with leaders in the local nonprofit, government, and business sectors. The trip will focus on understanding current economic conditions and the continuing recovery efforts in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

  • Event: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Madison, Wisconsin)

Federal Reserve president of St. Louis James Bullard (voter) will join the department of economics and The Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE) for a public seminar.

Economy

  • GDP (Q4)
  • Pending Home Sales (Feb)

 

Friday, March 29

  • Event: Shadow Open Market Committee: Strategic Approaches to the Fed’s Balance Sheet and Communications (New York)

Federal Reserve vice chair for supervision Randal Quarles (voter) slated to give the keynote address

Economy

  • Personal Income & Spending (Jan)
  • Chicago PMI (Mar)
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar – F)
  • New Home Sales (Feb)

 

Monday, April 1

Economy

  • Retail Sales (Feb)
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

 

Investors will most likely be combing through the Fed speech and dissecting the incoming data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction, as well as how domestic and global challenges such as trade negotiations, tariffs and slowing global growth may be affecting the U.S. economy and financial markets.

In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and earnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.

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The author does not hold any positions in the financial instruments referenced in the materials provided.

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23282




Technical Analysis

Stock Traders Daily - How Long Will Market Weakness Persist?


The economic data from Germany on Friday was weak, and more will come on Monday.  Investors are likely to remain nervous in advance of what they think could be another weak number.  Germany’s IFO Business climate data is scheduled for Monday before the open.

 

What should we expect from the market?

On Friday, the Manufacturing PMI from Germany showed a contraction, and when coupled with the general concerns vocalized by the FOMC this week, which directly influenced their decision on rates and future guidance, Wall Street is asking itself if the recent rally is warranted.

Economic growth matters more than interest rates.

The NDX lead the march higher in recent days, which was arguably fueled by AAPL.  The increase in AAPL over the past few days has caused the NDX to increase faster than all other markets, but the DOW, the Russell 2000, and the NASDAQ itself did not show the same degree of exuberance.

In fact, the Russell 2000 has been much weaker than the other markets, and it was the leadership group all year until AAPL started to increase aggressively recently.

The Russell 2000 is a much broader market, and the rally earlier in the year that was led by the Russell 2000 was quite broad, but that changed in recent days.  When the NDX took over, the leadership stocks were isolated to large cap tech, and that is concerning.

 

  • When the market that has led the way up starts to turn, that’s a concern.
  • When the new leadership group is only a handful of stocks, that’s a concern.
  • When economic concerns arise, that makes investors questions the rally.

Not only that, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average in expected to have a 15.6% earnings contraction in 2019, but this year, so far, investors have been ignoring that.

The technicals are not pretty either.  The Markets all tested longer-term resistance levels this week, and after Friday’s decline those resistance levels are holding.  Technical Resistance Levels

The carrot in front of this rally has been the potential for a trade deal with China, and face-to-face talks will happen next week, but a deal has also likely been priced in, and then some.  Expectations surrounding what an official trade deal with China might do to the market should be moderated.

There are reasons for concern, and instead of buying the dips, the market is likely to be much more rewarding for persons who short the peaks.

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Founded in January 2000, Stock Traders Daily has been online longer than almost everyone.  Stock Traders Daily combines our Macroeconomic Analysis with an added layer of combined market analysis to derive rules – based trading programs that have been tested in the best and worst of times, some of which can be automated too.  Find Out More.

Disclaimer: Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.  Substantial losses may come from investing in the stock market.  Consult with your personal financial advisor before making any decisions to invest. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Stock Traders Daily and is being posted with Stock Traders Daily 's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Stock Traders Daily and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23281




1 2 3 4 5 2 2030

Informative

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