IBKR Quant Blog


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Edison - UK Sparks: Competition Investigation Finds Against Supermarkets Merger


The Competition and Markets Authority says it has “extensive competition concerns” about the proposed £12bn merger of supermarkets groups J Sainsbury and Asda. Announcing the findings of its in-depth investigation into the deal the regulator says it could lead to “higher prices, a poorer shopping experience and reductions in the range and quality of products offered". It also raised concerns that the merger could drive up the price of petrol at a "large number" of Sainsbury's and Asda petrol stations and reduce the quality of service for online customers.

The findings are provisional and the companies now have the opportunity to respond to the analysis. However, the CMA has identified 600 local areas of concern and warns that "it is likely to be difficult for the companies to address the concerns it has identified".

Potential options include the CMA blocking the deal or requiring the companies to sell off a “significant number” of stores and other assets. J Sainsbury says in a statement that it fundamentally disagrees with the findings, which “misunderstand how people shop in the UK today and the intensity of competition in the grocery market”. It adds: “The CMA has moved the goalposts and its analysis is inconsistent with comparable cases.”

Lloyds Banking Group has reported a 13% increase in pre-tax profits to £5.96bn on net income 2% higher at £17.8bn. Underlying profits rose 6% to £8.1bn, reflecting income growth and lower costs.

Chief executive António Horta Osório says: “Whilst the near-term outlook for the UK economy remains unclear, we continue to believe that our simple, low-risk business model will deliver strong financial performance and market-leading returns."The dividend was raised 5% to 3.21p and Lloyds is proposing a share buyback of £1.75bn over the coming year.

Shopping centres owner Intu Properties has unveiled full-year results, reporting a £1.18bn pre-tax loss in 2018, compared to a £227m pre-tax profit in 2017. Net asset value per share fell 24% from 411p to 312p. The company, which owns the Lakeside shopping centre in Essex and the Trafford Centre in Manchester, is scrapping its final dividend as it attempts to reduce its debt-to-assets ratio to below 50%.

Chairman John Strachan says the company had a “challenging” year with an uncertain economic environment, difficult retail space, and two abortive offers for the company. Despite this, he says, the company produced a “robust operational performance” with increased like-for-like net rental income for the fourth consecutive year, 97% occupancy and 248 new long-term leases signed.

Finally, mining and commodities trading group Glencore has announced an 8% improvement in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation from $14.5bn to $15.8bn. The group says it will cap its coal production at 150m tonnes per year. It has also announced a new share buyback programme of $2bn over the course of this calendar year.

Andrew Cave

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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22811




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (Feb 20)


MARKET

After opening at high level in the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen Index fluctuated during the day. Till the market closed, both indices stopped slightly higher than the opening level. Overall, Agriculture/Forestry/Animal Husbandry/fishery, Nonferrous Metals, and Coal led the gain, while Computer, Health Care, and Food and Beverage sectors decreased. In total, both markets traded 499.28 billion RMB, down 17.4% dod.

 

 

Open

Close

% Change

(bn yuan)

Shanghai

2761.06

2761.22

0.2

205.45

Shenzhen

8443.98

8473.43

0.39

293.84

CSI 300

3449.93

3451.93

0.36

145.57

ChiNext

1406.99

1408.38

0.17

80.99

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Agriculture/Forestry/Animal Husbandry/fishery

300189

Nonferrous Metals

002149

Downward-leading

Computer

300479

Health Care

300753

 

NEWS

*Snowfall Prompts State Disaster Rescue in Tibetan Area of Qinghai

China on Tuesday activated a state disaster rescue for animals in Qinghai province’s Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, as heavy snowfall decimated livestock.

In an interim report, the Ministry of Emergency Management said that by 5 p.m. on Tuesday at least 12,931 households and 58,289 residents had been affected — roughly 14% of the local population. Around 21,000 livestock animals had been reported dead, while 68,800 animals could “hardly find food.” The situation had caused an estimated financial loss of 65.28 million yuan ($9.66 million) so far. (Caixin)

 

*Fosun Eyes Takeover of Another European Fashion Brand

Chinese conglomerate Fosun International has laurnched a bid to take over struggling German clothing retailer Tom Tailor. Fosun announced in a stock exchange filing on Tuesday that it will pay 8.6 million euros ($9.7 million) to lift its existing shareholding in Tom Tailor from 28.89% to 35.35% by buying new shares at 2.26 euros each. Under German law, the buyers seeking a stake in a company higher than 30% are obligated to make a takeover offer for the shares of all other shareholders. Fosun offered a price of 2.26 euros per share to purchase all the other shares of Tom Tailor in cash. The deal hasn’t been finalized. The bid for Tom Tailor comes after Fosun took control of French label Lanvin and Austrian lingerie maker Wolford last year. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22810




Macro

Eurex: Let's Talk About The Yuan


Morning Briefing February 20th 2018

Wednesday's data calendar is largely second tier, although the euro area PPI data due at 0700GMT will be closely watched.

The Fed minutes will also be closely watched for further clues as to FOMC thinking.

The other data to headline will be the UK CBI Industrial trends survey and the EU consumer confidence data.

Eurozone PPI fell 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December and is expected to fall 0.1% m/m in January.

The UK CBI survey is expected to show continued unease for manufacturers ahead of the March 29 Brexit date. The headline survey number was -1 in January, and is expected to be lower this month.

EU Consumer Confidence will be closely watched, to see whether the headlines of a slowing economy have impacted shoppers across the Continent.

Speakers Wednesday include ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan and San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: Tsys have stuck to a tight range edging back from Tuesday's closing levels, and trade virtually in line with settlement after cautious Fed rhetoric supported the space Tuesday. - Yields trade a touch higher in the cash space. - Headline flow has been light in Asia-Pacific hours. - Notable flow focused on a familiar structure, with 10.0K of the TYJ9 121.50/123.50 strangle vs. TYK9 121.50 put package blocked, in a repeat of a trade seen in Asia-Pacific hours last week.

BUNDS: German fixed income futures have ticked higher in Asia-Pacific hours, on low volume. - Risk-off flows fuelled by poor data supported Bunds on Tuesday, while the 10-Year BTP/Bund spread widening in the wake of soft Italian data, which will intensify fears of an elongated recession. - OAT/Bund 10- & 30-Year spreads narrowed, even with France's syndication of EUR7.0bn worth of new May 2050 OATs. - 10-Year Spanish & Portuguese spreads vs. Bunds also narrowed, with continued guarded rhetoric from ECB policymakers evident. - Syndication of 15-Year Cypriot paper was also easily absorbed on Tuesday.

JGBS: JGB futures edged away from the overnight highs in the Tokyo morning, after peaking at 153.00 overnight, with little in the way of headline flow apparent so far on Wednesday. The contract went into the lunch break 2 ticks above settlement levels. - Kuroda's comments on Tuesday, soft EZ data and cautious Fed rhetoric leant support to the space overnight, in the wake of a strong 20-Year auction, but the market likely needs a fresh catalyst to breach the aforementioned resistance area. - The curve sits a touch flatter at writing.

AUSSIE BONDS: A slight miss for the Q4 Q/Q wage price metric, which printed at 0.5% vs. exp. & prev. 0.6%, has helped underpin the space today, while the Y/Y reading met consensus, holding steady at 2.3%, which represents a marginal miss vs. the RBA's exp. of 2.4%. - Bond futures operate around best levels at writing, The AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread sits at -54.0, as the soft Q/Q wage data allowed AU paper to outperform at the margin. - Corporate issuance has also been noted. KfW launched a tap of it's A$ 2026 line at swaps +46bp, while BNP Paribas mandated banks for 5-Year A$ issuance, IPT given at 3-Month BBSW ~+180bp.

STOCKS: The major Asia-Pacific equity benchmarks traded in a mixed fashion, with focus on the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade talks in Washington. A glut of earnings reports weighed on the ASX 200, which resulted in marginal underperformance for the Australian benchmark. - U.S. equity index futures trade unchanged to a shade lower.

OIL: WTI and Brent hover around unchanged levels at writing. - This comes after Tuesday provided another limited session in terms of oil-related headlines, with WTI and Brent ending the day marginally lower as traders await clarity around the U.S.-China trade situation. - That being said, Tuesday saw the EIA trim its U.S. shale production forecast for the month of March, while TransCanada restarted the Steele City-Patoka leg of the Keystone pipeline.

GOLD: The yellow metal has drawn support from a softer USD and lower yields over the last 24 hours, and last trades $2 or so higher at $1,343/oz.

FOREX: JPY found itself at the bottom of the G10 pile overnight, as the Nikkei 225 advanced, while local trade balance data showed a wider than exp. deficit and a larger than exp. decline in exports, owing to shrinking demand from China. - AUD & NZD struggled vs. most of their G10 peers after a miss for the AU Q4 Q/Q wage price index, which printed at 0.5% vs. exp. & prev. 0.6%. The Y/Y reading met consensus at 2.3%, but missed the RBA's exp. of 2.4%. The RBA will be concerned with wages remaining stagnant despite low unemployment, although it exp. a gradual uptick in wages to support inflation. AUD drew some support from a stronger CNH in the wake of the BBG story, released Tues, suggesting that the U.S. is pressing for a "stable yuan," in the current round of trade talks. - USD/CNH shed over 200 pips in Asia-Pac hours, extending its late NY leg lower, with the move spilling over into USD/KRW.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (H9) 166.83 REMAINS KEY

Bund futures came within touching distance of the Feb 8 high at 166.83 yesterday and despite giving back some gains the focus remains on this level. A break above here would open the channel top at 167.00 ahead of a run at the Sep 2016 high at 168.42 on the continuation chart. To break the uptrend bears need a close below the 21-dma at 165.78, below here would suggest a downside reversal towards the Jan 18 low at 163.84 ahead of the Dec 27 low at 163.15.

EUROSTOXX50: KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS APPROACHING

Eurostoxx remains in its clear uptrend as a number of key resistance levels approach. The initial upside target comes in at the Sep 7 low at 3274.40, with a break above here opening the 200-dma at 3300.02. To regain the upper hand bears need to break back below the 21-dma at 3173.50, which would bring the 3100 pivot area into focus. Below here would suggest a bearish reversal towards the Dec 27 low at 2908.70.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22809




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Natural Gas (NG) Daily MACD Positively Crossing


Natural Gas (NG) is trying to form its 1st green weekly candle in 5 weeks going into Thursday's release of the highly anticipated weekly storage figures at 1030am EST.  Significantly, NG is edging past downchannel resistance (on the daily chart), and given its attempt at a 2nd straight weekly Doji, is increasingly poised for an oversold bounce.  Bears still want to retest the psychologically key 2.5 whole figure level, but given the 2-3 weeks of colder than average temperatures about to hit the US, could be in for a short squeeze.  Except for the weekly MACD which still slopes down, the weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am long as of yesterday at 2.65, and am targeting the red zone for Friday (with any additional longs entered into the April19 contract).  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops

tighter).

 

Natural Gas (CME NG Mar19)

Click here for today's technical analysis on Silver, EURUSD

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22808




Futures

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures


Euro (March)

Session close: Settled at 1.13655, up 43.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro finished higher today and more than a penny from Friday’s reversal low. There has been a tailwind to risk-assets due to upbeat sentiment surrounding U.S and China trade talks. On the currency front, this has taken the safe-haven bid from the Dollar, lifting its pairs. Soft data from the U.S beginning with Retail Sales last Thursday followed by Industrial Production Friday helped to pull the Dollar Index from the highest level in two months despite dovish ECB talk inviting the use of TLTRO. The British Pound gained significant ground today on Brexit optimism while jobs data was unenthusiastic. Also bringing a bid to the Euro was German and Eurozone ZEW Sentiment continuing to work their way out of the gutter. Tomorrow will be pivotal with the Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting due at 1:00 pm CT. Fed officials have been trying to find a middle ground, pointing to the potential need to hike this year while saying the balance sheet should be run-off if the economy allows. Today, Cleveland Fed President Mester and NY Fed President Williams were the latest to attempt that task. While we do attribute today’s strength to trade talks and Brexit hopium, tomorrow’s Minutes will be a market moving event and can either confirm or deny this recovery attempt in the Euro.

Technicals: Friday’s low of 1.1261 was defended by the bulls and brought a breath of fresh air into settlement for the Euro. Although this reversal did not even register a penny on that day, the significance is due to holding the November 12th low of 1.1245 which happens to be our major three-star support and a level that we said the Euro would be vulnerable to trade down to upon a close below 1.13375-1.1353. Major three-star resistance now comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Settled at .90555, down 17.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Today, the Yen was the only major currency in the red against a broadly weaker U.S Dollar. Risk-on exuberance has been a headwind for the currency but fresh comments from the Bank of Japan certainly did not do it any favors. BoJ Governor Kuroda said the central bank is ready to add stimulus if the strengthening Yen proves to hinder potential growth or their 2% inflation target. Tonight, we look to Trade Balance data from Japan at 5:50 pm CT. Tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes bring an interesting caveat for the Yen; a surprisingly hawkish tone would strengthen the Dollar but likely do more harm to risk-assets thus supporting the Yen or a surprisingly dovish tone would weaken the Dollar and lift the Yen. Ironically, the currency also finds itself at a technical crossroads, see below.

Technicals: It is go-time for the Yen at this level. The landscape has been laid and there are very favorable possibilities for the currency at this crossroads. Lower price action last Thursday was met by strong major three-star support at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Settled at .7172, up 29 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie traded higher in a broadly healthy risk-environment. Equity markets and energies have had a strong move over recent sessions but the metals both precious and base have traded extraordinarily strong. While the Aussie is a commodity currency and this has been supportive, the Dollar’s weakness has also acted as direct support. Especially considering that the Dollar’s weakness is due to upbeat sentiment on trade talks between the U.S and Australia’s number one trade partner China. Although the RBA Minutes exuded economic uncertainties last night, these wider-reaching moves in outside markets have been supportive. Tonight, Wage Price Index is due at 6:30 pm CT.

Technicals: Last week, the Aussie responded to major three-star support at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Settled at .75735, up 22 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian gained ground again in what has been a constructive 2019. Positive sentiment around U.S and China trade talks along with strength in many commodity sectors has kept a bid under the currency. One key component here when compared to the Aussie is that the Bank of Canada has over recent years shown the willingness to raise rates, whereas the RBA has taken a dovish turn. The one thing traders must keep an eye on though is the inconsistent data out of Canada, this has been the ongoing case and last week’s Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases both missed. For now, and especially heading into tomorrow, the U.S Dollar will remain the driving force.

Technicals: The bears took their shot on Thursday, but the market battled back strongly to start this week after major three-star support held another test. First key resistance comes in at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22807




1 2 3 4 5 2 1946

Informative

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