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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (December 15)


MARKET

Chinese stocks gauge closed lower, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3266.14 points. The Chinese stock market down 0.80%, marking the market dropped in the fifth consecutive week. Retail and Military sector led the gains; while Steel and Electronic Component sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 376.3 bn, up 5.14% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3266.14

-0.80

161.88

5.24

Shenzhen

10998.12

-1.01

214.78

8.07

CSI 300

3980.86

-1.12

118.47

20.26

ChiNext

1783.97

-0.58

56.65

-9.08

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Retail

600361

Military

002151

Downward-leading

Steel

002110

Electronic Component

000636

 

NEWS

*Huishan Dairy Names Provisional Liquidators. Troubled dairy producer China Huishan Dairy Holdings Co. Ltd. said Thursday it has appointed Hang Seng Bank Ltd. and Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu in Hong Kong as provisional liquidators. On Nov. 17, northeast China’s largest dairy producer said it “could have” had 10.5 billion yuan worth of liabilities as of March 31. The company said it asked its lawyers to begin provisional liquidation of the heavily indebted company, after more than half of its creditors have agreed to a debt restructuring plan after months of disagreement. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15725




Technical Analysis

AUDUSD Weekly MACD Green Line Flattening


The AUDUSD consolidated yesterday after soaring more than 70 pips Wednesday, and appears close to resuming its rally.  Significantly, the current green weekly candle has decisively broken above a 3 month downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart), making last week's break below upchannel support (on the weekly chart) increasingly appearing to be a false sell signal.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish or rallying.  I am long at .7672 as of today, targeting the red zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

AUDUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on Litecoin (LTCUSD), Ripple (XRPUSD)

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


 


15724




Macro

Asia Stocks Fall; USD Holds Decline


Morning Briefing December 15th 2017


A fairly quiet calendar to finish the week. Kicking off the calendar at 0745GMT is French Wage data, Eurozone Trade Balance data is on the docket for 1000GMT.

BOE Chef Economist Andy Haldane will deliver a speech at 1315GMT Across the Atlantic the first release of the day Is the US Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 1330GMT. The index is expected to fall to a reading of 17.5 in December from 19.4 in November.

Also at 1330GMT is the Canadian Monthly Survey of Manufacturing.

US Industrial Production figures are scheduled for 1415GMT. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in November after a 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 31,000 in November, while auto production jobs were up 2,000 and the factory workweek held steady at 40.9 hours.

The ISM production index rose to 63.9 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to decline in the month after a 2.0% October gain, as the weather was warmer than normal, while mining production is forecast to rebound after posting a 1.3% decline due to increase oil and gas extraction. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.2% from 77.0% in October.

At 1500GMT the Atlanta Fed release their Inflation Index.

The St. Louis Fed release their Real GDP Nowcast at 1600GMT, followed swiftly by the New York Fed GDP Nowcast at 1615GMT.

Rounding off the day at 2100GMT is US Treasury International Capital data.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 6.17 points at 22681.05 - ASX 200 down 6.861 points at 6004.7 - Shanghai Comp. down 28.082 points at 3264.356 - JGB 10-Yr future down 3 ticks at 150.85, JGB 10-Yr yield down 0.1bp at 0.049% - Aussie 3-Yr future up 4.5 ticks at 97.955, yield down 2.7bp at 2.037% - Aussie 10-Yr future up 5 ticks at 97.4725, yield down 3.5bp at 2.52% - US 10-Yr future down 4 ticks at 124.14, US 10-Yr yield up 1.25bp at 2.3618%

US TSY/RECAP: Rates held mixed into the close, curves hammered to new 10+ year lows w/long end near session highs (2s10s -3.137, 53.245; 5s30s -4.286, 57.748).Equities weak/off lows (emini -11.0, 2658.0), gold soft (XAU -1.06, 1254.59). -

BOJ: The Bank of Japan purchased total Y390bln of JGB's from the market, all sizes unchanged from the previous operations - Y200bln of 10-25 Year JGB's - Y90bln of 25+ Year JGB's - Y100bln of FRN JGB's - Also purchases Y250bln of T-Bills from the market (prev. Y1.25tln).

AUSSIE BONDS: December Aussie 3-Year and 10-Year futures rolled off today, Friday Dec 15th, and settled as follows: - Dec17 (YMZ7) Aussie 3-Year future = 97.955 - Dec17 (XMZ7) Aussie 10-Year future = 97.4725

US EURODLR FUTURES: Very quiet Asia-Pac trade after the plethora of Central Bank announcements this week. Volume thin, slightly lower across the strip, still within yesterday's range. Current White pack (Dec'17-Sep'18):

STOCKS: Stocks in Asia are firmly in the red to end the week, negative sentiment rolling over from the European and US sessions as broadly risk off trade dominated on Thursday. In Japan the Nikkei 225 is down 170 points at 22522. The index opened slightly lower and continued to fall as the session progressed. A stronger yen is weighing on the index, USD/JPY last down 10 pips on the session at 112.30 and some 60 pips lower than highs on Thursday. Yen saw bids as jitters over the US tax plan saw the USD sell off, while EUR/JPY sales also strengthened the Japanese currency after the ECB kept rates steady and cautioned on inflation In China the Shanghai Comp is down 28 points at 3264, in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is down 314 points at 28850. Shares are coming under pressure after the PBOC hiked MLF and OMO rates 5bp and Hong Kong hiked 25bp yesterday. Volatility in regional stocks has spiked and shares have retraced their weekly gain.

OIL: Oil is flat in Asia-Pac trade on Friday; WTI last up $0.11 at $57.15, Brent is down $0.01 at $63.30. Both benchmarks are on track for a weekly decline, WTI last down 0.35% on the week, this would denote the third consecutive drop. - WTI is holding gains made on Thursday, after dropping to around $56.10 WTI recovered to highs of $57.20. WTI managed to shrug off an IEA report that forecasted faster than expected US shale production in 2018.

GOLD: Gold is up $1.56 in Asia-Pac trade on Friday, last at $1,254.53. Gold is up 0.5% on the week and set for the first weekly gain since mid-November, supported by US tax plan jitters and a dovish hike from the FOMC. Gold took a brief dip at the start of Asia-Pac trade, dipping to $1,249.06, MNI sources noted this was order based rather than fundamental and was quickly reversed. -Gold has seen thin trade on Friday after a raft of central bank

FOREX: After a busy couple of days in terms of central bank meetings and economic data, the Asia-Pacific session witnessed a relatively quiet end to the week, the dollar not veering too far from the close seen in New York yesterday. Dollar-yen trekked between Y112.11 and Y112.40, with large option expiries seen containing the range. Euro-dollar traded in a $1.1765 to $1.1791 range, euro-yen flows dictated the gyrations on the session. Aussie-dollar was confined to a narrow $0.7655 to $0.7673, local traders were happy to sit on their hands and watch events unfold in the Ashes. Meanwhile, cable consolidated in a $1.3423 to $1.3446 range.

Technical Analysis


 BUND: (H18) Pressure Remains On Week’s Highs

*RES 4: 164.01 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)
*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)
*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11
*RES 1: 163.64 High Dec 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.52

*SUP 1: 163.25 Hourly Breakout level Dec 14
*SUP 2: 162.90 Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5
*SUP 4: 162.61 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)    

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on dips with the pair again finding support around the 21-DMA (162.96) and retaining bullish focus on 163.64-164.01 where a bull channel top is noted. The Bollinger top (163.86) remains the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 163.25 to pressure 162.61-90 where the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the 21-DMA are located. Below the channel base initially targets 161.47-162.10 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

EUROSTOXX50: Topside Hesitation Taking Its Toll

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 3620.01 High Nov 10
*RES 2: 3601.30 55-DMA
*RES 1: 3581.05 Hourly resistance Dec 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3556.22

*SUP 1: 3531.17 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low)
*SUP 2: 3530.59 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 3519.35 Low Dec 7
*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through above the 55-DMA has taken its toll with the index remaining heavy and focus having returned to the lower end of the defining 3519.35-3620.01 range. Bears need a close below 3519.35 to confirm breaks of key supports and below 3497.29 to target the bear channel base (3439.76). Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to Nov highs with above 3642.10 to confirm.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


15723




Securities Lending

Soybean Deal Yields Interest


Yield10 Bioscience (YTEN) develops technology to improve crop yields and has a market cap of $13M.  The Massachusetts-based company was a quiet name on lending desks until December 11th, when it announced granting a research license to Monsanto (MON).  Shares spiked from $2 to $8, with the borrow fee following from 3% to 80%.  Early shorts have had some success, as the stock closed yesterday at $4.32.  The paltry borrow supply is multiples oversubscribed by IB clients and it seems that many lending desks on the street are in a similar situation.  With the limited number of shares available, the borrow fee has increased further to 200% today.  We only saw one smaller desk show 1,000 shares this morning.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15719




acciones

A Coalition of Support is Coalescing


If you enjoy following central banks, this week is a little like going to an All-Star game.  The Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Norges Bank have all held meetings and only one bank -- the Federal Reserve -- voted to raise its key policy rate.

The market's focal point with respect to the Fed's decision wasn't on the interest rate hike (it was widely expected).  Rather, it was on the understanding that the dot plot didn't show a change in the projection for three rate hikes in 2018.  

Many participants thought the Fed might at least bump up its rate-hike projections for 2018 in light of the improving economy and the potential for increased stimulus from anticipated tax cuts.  The latter, incidentally, are reportedly moving closer to happening as some ranking GOP members have indicated a compromise on the tax bill appears to have been struck.

A final bill, which would feature a cut in the corporate tax rate to 21% starting in 2018, could be presented as early as tomorrow, setting the stage for an historic vote and an eventual signing by the president before Christmas.

That hopeful consideration has kept the stock market propped up all year and it has certainly engendered some glad tidings in recent weeks that have manifested themselves in record highs for the major indices.

It hasn't been all about tax cuts, however.  Strikingly, all of the elements of support -- friendly monetary policy, tax relief, M&A transactions, good earnings news, share buyback activity, and upbeat economic data -- have all coalesced this morning. 

In the interest of brevity:

  • The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it will reduce its asset purchases to €30 billion per month starting in January and continuing through September 2018, or beyond, if necessary.  The bank also reiterated that it stands ready to increase its accommodation if necessary.  This decision was made shortly after it was reported the flash manufacturing PMI for the eurozone hit a record high of 62.0 in December.
  • The Bank of England voted unanimously to leave its key rate at 0.50% and its asset purchase program at £435 billion
  • It has been confirmed that Disney (DIS) will acquire select assets of 21st Century Fox (FOXA) for approximately $52.4 billion in stock
  • Industrial company Danaher (DHR) issued in-line guidance for its fiscal year and said its strong cash flow performance in 2017 positions it well for future capital deployment
  • Humana (HUM) announced a new $3 billion share repurchase program; and
  • The Retail Sales report for November and the latest weekly initial claims report were better than expected

In terms of retail sales, they increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) on top of an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from +0.2%) in October.  Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus +0.6%) on top of an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from +0.1%) for October.

The retail sales strength was widespread, led by sales increases at gasoline stations (+2.8%) and nonstore retailers (+2.5%).  The only pocket of weakness was motor vehicle and parts dealers sales (-0.2%).

The key takeaway from the report is that there was healthy spending activity across discretionary categories, which is consistent with a consumer feeling good about their income prospects.

Part of that confidence flows from the tightness in the labor market, which has promoted good feelings about job security.  Those feelings were solidified this morning in the report that initial claims for the week ending December 9 decreased by 11,000 to 225,000 (Briefing.com consensus 239,000) while continuing claims for the week ending December 2 dropped by 27,000 to 1.886 million.

The latest week marks the 145th straight week initial claims have been below 300,000.

It was also reported that import prices increased 0.7% in November while export prices increased 0.5%.  Those monthly gains left import prices up 3.1% year-over-year, versus up 0.2% for the 12 months ending November 2016, and export prices up 3.1% year-over-year, versus down 0.2% for the 12 months ending November 2016.

Notwithstanding the compendium of favorable developments for the stock market this morning, the S&P futures are up just two points, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 10 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 35 points.

Those modest gains aren't to be construed as a sign of not being encouraged by today's news.  If anything, they suggest many market participants have come to expect it and that it has been largely reflected in stock prices already.

Nevertheless, the move to take profits continues to be limited and that absence of sellers continues to press on the sentiment of sidelined participants who are fearful about missing out on further gains, which one can include as another element of support that has helped drive the stock market higher in 2017.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

This article is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15714




1 2 3 4 5 2 711

Declaraciones

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El material (incluidos artículos y comentarios) proporcionado en IB Traders' Insight se ofrece solo a efectos informativos. El material publicado NO es una recomendación por parte de Interactive Brokers (IB) para que usted o sus clientes contraten los servicios o inviertan con ninguno de los asesores independiente o fondos de cobertura y otros que puedan publicar en los IB Traders' Insight o invertir con cualquier asesor o fondo de cobertura. Los asesores, fondos de cobertura y otros analistas que puedan publicar en los IB Traders' Insight son independientes de IB y IB no representa ni garantiza el rendimiento pasado o futuro de estos asesores, fondos de cobertura u otros o la exactitud de la información que proporcionan. Interactive Brokers no realiza una "revisión de adecuación" para asegurar que la negociación de cualquier asesor o fondo de cobertura u otra parte sea adecuada para usted.

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