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Macro

Eyes On UK Data & Fed Chair Powell


Morning Briefing July 17th 2018


The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT Tuesday, with the release of the ACEA Car Registrations. Previously, EU-wide y/y growth in car registrations were 0.8%.

Next up is Industrial Orders at 0800GMT in Italy. Previously, m/m growth contracted by 1.3% and y/y growth was at 6.4%.

The UK Labour Report is set for release at 0830GMT. Average weekly earnings including bonuses are expected to remain unchanged in May from Aril's 2.5% on a 3m/3m y/y growth rate. However, core earnings is expected to fall a touch from April's 2.8% to 2.7%. Unemployment appears to have remained robust in May, with analysts penciling in an unchanged figure from April at 4.2%.

Up next is the final HICP data for Italy, EXPECTED AT 0900gmt. The previous y/y rate was 1.5%.

Moving to Canada in the afternoon is the monthly survey of Manufacturing at 1230GMT. After a previous decline of 1.3% in manufacturing sales, growth is expected to pick up to 0.2%.

Industrial production in the US is expected at 1315GMT and is seen rising 0.5% in June after a surprise decline in May on a special factor -- a fire at a truck supply plant. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 in June, while auto production jobs rose by 12,000 and the factory workweek was rose to 40.9 hours, up from 40.8 hours in May. The ISM production index rose to 62.3 in the current month from 61.5 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to flatten in the month after a further gain in the previous month, but with an upside risk due to warmer-than-usual weather. Mining production is expected to continue it's string of gain. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.3% from 77.9% in May.

However, undoubtedly the event with the most attention in the US will be at 1400GMT when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 up 193.67 points at 22635 - ASX 200 down 31.018 points at 6220 - Shanghai Comp. down 28.297 points at 2785.745 - JGB 10-Yr future down 1 tick at 150.89, yield up 0.6bp at 0.043% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 3 ticks at 97.35, yield up 2.7bp at 2.647% - U.S. 10-Yr future down 3+ ticks at 120.02, yield up 0.92bp at 2.8619%

 

US TSYS: U.S. Tsy futures have stuck to a tight range, with little in the way of news flow to prompt traders into action, resulting in limited activity in the cash space. - The RBA's July meeting minutes provided little impetus for Tsys.

 

JGBS: JGB futures have stuck to a narrow range, with some modest flattening apparent in the cash space after the elongated weekend, with the super-long end outperforming. - The BOJ left the size of its 1-3 & 3-5 Year Rinban operations unchanged at today's operations. The offer to cover ratio of the 1-3 Year sector jumped to 5.36 from 3.67, while the offer to cover ratio of the 3-5 Year sector eased a touch to 3.61 from 3.80.

 

BOJ: *** BOJ offers to buy total Y575bn of JGB's from the market, all sizes unchanged from the previous operation. - Y250bn worth of JGBs with 1-3 Years until maturity - Y300bn worth of JGBs with 3-5 Years until maturity - Y25bn of JGBis

 

AUSSIE BONDS: The shorter end of the curve has come under some modest pressure after the RBA reinstated the line that the next move in the cash rate would likely be up, rather than down, in the minutes of the July MonPol meeting. - The RBA also pointed to quarter end flows as the driving force behind the recent round of tightening in funding rates, with no mention of demand for Australian securities, tighter money supply and the move in cross currency basis swaps. - 3-Month BBSW fixed some 1.3bp lower today, while longer dated repos fixed above 2.06%. The lower BBSW fix has supported the front end of the Bill strip with the white contracts last trading 1-3 ticks higher, while the red contracts trade unchanged to a tick lower.

 

STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 managed to record modest gains following the elongated holiday weekend, adding 0.5% in the morning session, while the remainder of the major Asia-Pacific equity indices traded lower. - The Hang Seng fell afoul of the after-hours pressure on the Nasdaq, stemming from soft Netflix subscription metric in its quarterly earnings report, losing 1.0%, with the CSI 300 also registering similar declines. - Australia's ASX 200 lost around 0.5% with the heavyweight energy and materials sectors underperforming, as all of the major sectors traded lower. - US index futures stuck to a tight range overnight, with the Nasdaq's after hours performance on Monday, in lieu of the aforementioned Netflix report, the key takeaway.

 

OIL: WTI and Brent traded little changed overnight, with traders focused on supply side matters in the U.S., Saudi Arabia & Libya. The aforementioned factors weighed on crude on Monday, with WTI shedding over 4.0%. - Participants now look to Tuesday's API crude inventory estimates, with analysts looking for a headline crude drawdown in Wednesday's DOE inventory dataset.

 

GOLD: Gold recovered from an early dip lower to last trade at unchanged levels.

 

FOREX: The NZD benefitted from the RBNZ's sectoral inflation model accelerating to a 7-Year high of 1.7% in Q2, after the official Q2 CPI print provided a modest miss against exp. (although it matched the RBNZ's MPS projections). NZD/USD has added around 50 pips, breaking the Jul 10 low ($0.6804) & the 21-DMA ($0.6809) to print at $0.6841. The next notable level of resistance is some way off at $0.6882. AUD/NZD has breached the July 13 low ($NZ$1.0893), bears now look to the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0861). - The AUD crosses had little reaction as the RBA reinstated the line that the next move in the cash rate would likely be up, rather than down, in the minutes of the July MonPol meeting. AUD/USD has edged higher, alongside the NZD/USD cross in the wake of the RBNZ's inflation model, although with an understandable lag. GBP ignored the passage of the amended Customs Union Bill, while JPY struggled for any real conviction, despite a move higher in the JPY crosses, which was quickly retraced.

Technical Analysis


BUND: (U18) Below 162.26 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 164.19 2018 High May 29
*RES 3: 163.25 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 163.22 High July 13
*RES 1: 163.00 Hourly resistance July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.70

*SUP 1: 162.40 Low July 11
*SUP 2: 162.34 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 162.26 Low July 10
*SUP 4: 162.06 Low July 5    

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Friday's 6wk highs with the contract dipping back towards the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below 162.26 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to 161.26-75. While 162.26 supports bulls remain focused on tests of the 164.19-36 region where 2018 highs and the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs are located but continue to look for a close above 163.22 to add support to their case.

EUROSTOXX50: 3418.06 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 3502.03 55-WMA
*RES 3: 3480.66 55-DMA
*RES 2: 3480.44 High July 10
*RES 1: 3466.26 High July 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3449.08

*SUP 1: 3418.06 Low July 12
*SUP 2: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 3355.14 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 3340.50 Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from June lows stalled ahead of the 55-DMA last week with correcting O/B studies increasing the risk of a correction back to the 200-WMA (3323.96). Bears now need a close below 3418.06 to shift initial focus back to 3340.50 June lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA (3511.66) to hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19110




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq100 (NQ) Rejected Again @ Weekly Chart Upchannel Resistance


The Nasdaq100 (NQ) saw some profittaking yesterday ahead of today's testimony from US Fed Chairman Powell at 10am EST.  Significantly, the NQ is being rejected at weekly chart upchannel resistance, and could be setting up in the next few days for a slide towards the daily chart upchannel support.  With the 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD a bit overextended to the downside, and the daily equivalents yet to turn lower, a bounce today ahead of Powell back towards the 4hr chart's prior ascending wedge support line should not be ruled out.  The weekly RSI and Stochastics appear to be tiring, while the weekly MACD (in the included chart) does not have enough history to provide meaningful interpretation.  I am flat after profitably closing shorts yesterday and am looking to re-enter short in the red zone (of the daily chart), targeting the green zone for Thursday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).
 
Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Sep18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on EURUSD, AUDUSD
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 
 

19109




Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (September)

Session close: Settled at 1.1767, up 36 ticks

Fundamentals: On Friday, July U.S Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in soft and helped lift the Euro from the lowest level since July 2nd. The momentum higher in the rangebound Euro continued into this week. There was no major data from the Eurozone this morning. June U.S Retail Sales was the biggest single data point on the calendar this week and while it was ultimately in line with expectations, last month’s May read was revised much higher. Still, this along with better than expected NY Empire State Manufacturing did little to derail the Euro’s solid session. Minneapolis Fed President and known dove, Neel Kashkari, pointed to the hot topic of the yield curve today and though he does not vote this year, he said that the narrowing gap means that interest rates are close to neutral. We are likely to hear more on this topic as Fed Chair Powell begins is congressional testimony with the Senate Banking Committee at 9:00 am CT tomorrow. June Industrial Production data is also due tomorrow at 8:15 am CT.

Technicals: The Euro has shown firm price action since Friday morning and today’s close above 1.1753-1.1759 gives the bulls an edge heading into tomorrow’s session. Still, there is strong resistance at ... Please sign up for  Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (September)

Session close: Settled at .89425, up 4 ticks

Fundamentals: Last week was a complete breakdown for the Yen as the Dollar remained elevated, equity markets extended gains and yields edged slightly higher. Safe-haven spikes in the Yen have been consistently faded but this is not uncommon coming out of period of such high volatility in equity markets like we saw in February through March. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan has given no indication that they will move to tighten policy any time in the near future. There is no economic data out of Japan to begin the week, but traders need to keep an eye on Fed Chair Powell tomorrow and the Yen could become very attractive at such low levels; however, we will not bank on it.

Technicals: The most surprising thing about this breakdown in the Yen is that it has taken place without shorts drastically increasing positions. In fact, the net-short position shrunk in the week ending July 10th. This eludes to their being room to go. Last week’s breakdown below trend line support from December 2015 is bearish and cannot be fought. However, there is support below that aligns with ...  Please sign up for  Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (September)

Session close: Settled at .7415, up 3 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie did lose some ground last night after Chinese Industrial Production missed and GDP was confirmed to be the slowest pace of growth since 2016. Still, a soft U.S Dollar on today’s session helped keep the Aussie from revisiting Friday’s low. Tonight, the Minutes from RBA’s most recent meeting are due at 8:30 pm CT.

Technicals: Early last week, we said bears could sell the Aussie and have a very well-defined stop above .7473-.7498 and this has stuck. Today’s session high of .7440 failed to trade out above the pivot and previous major three-star resistance, however, watch this level closely and it could signal a shift from ...  Please sign up for  Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (September)

Session close: Settled at .76155, up 9.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian held in well today considering the thrashing that Crude Oil took. While Manufacturing Sales is due tomorrow at 7:30 am CT, Fed Chair Powell will likely steal the show. Traders must keep a close eye on comments because we expect today’s ranges to double before lunch.

Technicals: Major three-star resistance at .7670-.7679 has been perfect but traders do want to watch a trend line from the April high that now comes in at ....  Please sign up for  Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19108




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq - Technical Take: Crude Oil Down on Supply Expectations


Technical Take: Crude Oil Down on Supply Expectations

Crude oil is down more than 3% today due in part on growing expectations of increased supply coming from Saudi Arabia,  as well as the potential for the US to grant select exemptions allowing some buyers to purchase Iranian oil.  Crude oil (WTI) finished June on a strong note with back to back weekly gains of 5.4% and 8.1%.  However two weeks ago it formed a bearish doji pattern which was proceeded and confirmed by last week’s bearish engulfing candlestick and a decline of 3.8%.  The next major support is down at the 40-week sma, now $63.63.            

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Charles Brown is Associate Vice President on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 20 years of equity capital markets experience. Charlie has extensive knowledge of equity trading on both floor and screen based marketplaces. Charlie assists with the management of The Market Intelligence Desk and works with Nasdaq listed companies providing them with insightful objective trading analysis.

 

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

 

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

 

Brian Joyce, CMT is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Before joining Nasdaq, Brian spent 16 years as an institutional trader executing equity and options orders for both the buy side and sell side. He also provided trading ideas and wrote technical analysis commentary for an institutional research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Transportation companies, among others, understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


19105




acciones

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight July 16, 2018


As of 10:46 AM EDT:

NASDAQ Composite -0.08% Dow -0.05% S&P 500 -0.18% Russell 2000 -0.38%

NASDAQ Advancers: 892 Decliners: 1286

Today’s Volume (First Hour) -0.7%

After a flat open the markets drifted fractionally into the red and that follows generally lower conditions in Asia and Europe.  Somewhat weaker than expected industrial production data from China set the tone while several positive earnings reports in the US aren’t moving the market.  Most sectors are modestly lower with Energy (-1.8%) under the most pressure as crude oil falls over 3%, and Financials (+1.0%) lead. The dollar, gold and treasuries are all a little weaker at the start of the week. 

  • The Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales rose solidly by 0.5% in June, boosted by increases in the purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods. Auto sales increased 0.9% after advancing 0.8% in May. Service station receipts rose 1.0% largely on higher gasoline prices. Ex autos retail sales jumped 0.4% after rising by a upwardly revised 1.4% in May. Overall retail data for May was revised higher to show a sales increase of 1.3% instead of the previous reported 0.8% gain. May’s increase was the largest since September of 2017.

 

  • After falling for the past two weeks crude oil open this week with a 3.3% decline.  There is concern that the US may tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and other countries may follow, all in an effort to lower prices.  No doubt that will be a continuing mantra in the US until election day in November.  Even with the recent declines WTI crude is still about 40% less expensive that the recent peak in 2013. 
  • On the earnings front, JB Hunt (-2.7%) moved lower despite an above consensus quarter, Bank of America (+2.7%) missed slightly on top line but beat on bottom line, and Blackrock (-0.6%) is lower despite beating top and bottom lines.  Tonight comes Netflix and then we get Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson in the morning. 

     

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Charles Brown is Associate Vice President on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 20 years of equity capital markets experience. Charlie has extensive knowledge of equity trading on both floor and screen based marketplaces. Charlie assists with the management of The Market Intelligence Desk and works with Nasdaq listed companies providing them with insightful objective trading analysis.

 

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

 

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

 

Brian Joyce, CMT is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Before joining Nasdaq, Brian spent 16 years as an institutional trader executing equity and options orders for both the buy side and sell side. He also provided trading ideas and wrote technical analysis commentary for an institutional research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Transportation companies, among others, understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19104




1 2 3 4 5 2 1303

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