IB Traders’ Insight

View The Latest Videos View Videos


Futures

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures (05.21.19)


The Dollar is on the verge of a breakout. Is this the week? Fed Minutes tomorrow could be the catalyst. Or will we see a reprieve in the Euro and Yen? Let’s take a look at the levels for the major currency contracts. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24025




Futures

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures


Euro (June)

Fundamentals: A weaker risk-environment at the onset of U.S hours abated, and the Euro recovered from a two and a half week low. Volatility between Friday and today was very low signaling that traders are waiting for the next catalyst to either driver prices through a long-tested level of support or find value for yet another bounce. Brexit, Italy and global trade all hang in the balance. Tonight, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 6:00 pm CT. This is the highlight of a quieter calendar day that only boasted a weaker than expected Chicago National Fed Activity read and no major comments from Fed speakers earlier. Tomorrow, we look to Existing Home Sales and comments from Chicago Fed President Evans and Boston Fed President Rosengren, both 2019 voters.

Technicals: Price action still has yet to close out above major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Yen (June)

Fundamentals: Today was certainly a time where one would not only think the Yen was higher but expect it to be. Overall, today was disappointing for the currency given rising tensions between U.S and China on tech and the tech-centric NQ losing 1.5% all the while the Dollar did not trade higher. To top things off, GDP data from Japan last night was much better than expected. However, the previous quarter was revised lower which buoys the more recent QoQ beat. There is no data out of Japan tonight. If risk-sentiment worsens from here, the Yen better respond, but given today’s action if stocks bounce back, we would expect pressures on the currency.

Technicals: The more immediate trend has been favorable and despite lower action early last night, the Yen finished off that low and still settled above the 200-day moving average. In our videos last week, we advised that traders cannot chase price action into major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Aussie (June)

Fundamentals: The Aussie was overdue for a bounce, and here it was today after the incumbent PM Scott Morrison surprisingly won reelection. His win brings less uncertainty to the country’s landscape and he promised fiscal reforms that are expected to boost growth. The recovery or dead-cat bounce in the currency comes ahead of the release of the RBA’s Minutes tonight; shorts are likely de-risking a bit after piling on the bearish technical breakdown.

Technicals: Price action fell precipitously through last week and directly tested major three-star support at .6809-.6861 with a low of .6869. Right now, this has the makings of a dead-cat bounce and strong major three-star resistance comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Canadian (June)

Fundamentals: The Canadian is being buoyed by both progress on USMCA and strength in Crude Oil. On Friday the White House removed steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada. These expectations were put in place on reports earlier in the week and helped keep the Canadian from slipping amidst a broadly weaker risk-environment. Today was a holiday in Canada and tomorrow there is not data.

Technicals: Major three-star support at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24007




Futures

Blue Line Futures - Grain Express


Corn (July)

Fundamentals: All eyes are on weather this week as planting delays persist throughout the Midwest. Expectations are for the crop to be 40-50% completed, well shy of the 5-year average, 80%. Expectations of less acres and/or decreased yield have put a premium into the market and will likely continue to as the heavily short funds look to cover and potentially flip long. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds with a net short position of 282,918 futures/options, little changed from the previous week. Keep in mind that that data is collected through Tuesday, estimates for the back half of the week show funds reduced another 73,000 contracts, putting the real time estimate closer to -210,000 futures/options.

Technicals: The market is pressing up against the top end of our 4-star resistance pocket, we have defined that as 390. If the bulls can chew through and close above here, there’s a good chance we see the market extend towards 398 ¼-401. This pocket represents a key retracement, the top end of the range in from December-February, and the psychologically significant $4.00 handle.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance: 398 ¼-401***, 408 ½-410 ½****

Pivot: 390

Support: 380 ¾-384 ¾***, 370 ¾-373 ½***

 

Soybeans (July)

Fundamentals: Soybeans are marching higher in the early morning session thanks to growing concerns over weather and planting progress, or lack thereof. This afternoons crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop 10-15% planted. The lingering headwind for the soybean market is the ongoing trade battle with China. Until that issue gets resolved, rallies will likely be sold into by producers. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds holding a record short position of 168,835 futures/options through Tuesday. Estimates indicate that funds bought back roughly 1,500 contracts in the back half of the week.

Technicals: The market is trying to recover losses from Friday’s session after the market failed to gain additional momentum above technical resistance. Resistance to start the week comes in from 845-850, consecutive closes above this pocket would lend hand to a short covering rally towards 882 ¼. On the support side of things, the bulls must defend 816 ¾-820 ½. A break and close below here opens the door for a retest of contract lows.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 845-850***, 865-867**, 887 ¼**, 896 ½-901 ¾****

Support: 816 ¾-820 ½****, 800-805 ½***, 791**

 

Wheat (July)

Fundamentals: The market made a swift reversal last week as funds look to cover short positions in the grain complex. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a short position of 78,461 futures/options for the Chicago contract, funds are short another 56,424 contracts in KC wheat. This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show spring wheat planting to be 70-80% complete.

Technicals: The market is pressing up against our 4-star resistance pocket from 479 ¾-482 ½. This pocket represents the 100-day moving average and the top end of the range from late march and early April. We would not be surprised to see the market catch its breath here. If the bulls are able to break through this pocket with conviction, we would see the $5 handle sooner rather than later.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 479 ¾-482 ½****, 500-505 ½****

Support: 463-468***, 435-436 ¼***, 426-427**

Our support and resistance levels are ranked by significance, using 1,2,3 or 4 stars (*).  A 3-4-star support or resistance level are significant levels, typically these are intermediate term targets.  1-2 stars are used for shorter term trading setups. 

--

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures. Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others. Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.

You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


23995




Futures

FX Rundown (05.16.19)


The Dollar is targeting a breakout once again. Can tomorrow’s data confirm it? Let’s take a look at some of the momentum carrying through into the end of the week. Covering the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Aussie and Canadian. 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23983




Futures

FX Rundown (05.15.19)


Today was a battle of the worst house on the block. China data missed, Italy’s budget is again under fire and a deluge of data from the U.S missed. Let’s take a look at today’s action and what we expect over the next 24 hours. 

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23981




Disclosures

We appreciate your feedback. If you have any questions or comments about IB Traders' Insight please contact ibti@ibkr.com.

The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however, IB does not warrant its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

Any information posted by employees of IB or an affiliated company is based upon information that is believed to be reliable. However, neither IB nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy. IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of any financial instrument. By posting material on IB Traders' Insight, IB is not representing that any particular financial instrument or trading strategy is appropriate for you.