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Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Natural Gas (NG) Forming Weekly Gravestone Ahead of Weekly Storage


Natural Gas (NG) Forming Weekly Gravestone Ahead of Weekly Storage

Natural Gas (NG) slid more than 2% yesterday on profittaking, and is now in today's Asia morning testing an uptrend support line (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, NG is forming a weekly Gravestone reflecting reluctance to push higher the balance of this week...Click here to read the full analysis of this market as well as on WTI Crude, Arabica Coffee

 

Natural Gas (CME NG Jun19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


24026




Technical Analysis

Vermilion Technical - Neutral Outlook; Key Levels On S&P 500


Last week we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral as we monitor several developments.

  • Key levels on S&P 500. Our neutral outlook is supported by a consolidating market along with a number of mixed signals. On the S&P 500 we are watching for support at 2,800 (with secondary support at the 200-day MA) and resistance at the 5/1/19 all-time high of 2,954. On the equal-weighted S&P 500, we are watching for support at the 200-day MA and 4,125. Eventual breakouts or breakdowns are likely to be the deciding factor as to where the market is headed next.

  • Cyclicals clinging to support. Semiconductors (SOXX), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and equal-weight Discretionary (RCD) are currently testing critical support levels.

  • China. We view Chinese equity markets as a critical global risk barometer. While it is concerning that the MSCI China (MCHI) and Hong Kong-listed China large-caps (FXI) are breaking down, China mainland shares have not broken down. The mainland Shanghai Composite is still above its 200-day MA and is stabilizing above 2,850 short-term support.

  • U.S. dollar (USD), euro, commodities. We have noted our belief that an S&P 500 breakout may require participation from late-cyclical Sectors Materials and Energy. We take a look at the USD, the euro, and broad commodities, including highlighting a falling wedge pattern for the euro and a potential rising wedge pattern for the USD - and these patterns’ implications for both of these major currencies and broad commodities.

 

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About Us

David Nicoski, CMT is Vermilion’s Chief Investment Strategist and is responsible for managing the firm’s research products and investment recommendations. David Nicoski was previously a Principal and Senior Technical Analyst in the Technical Research department of a global investment bank and has more than 20 years of technical research experience.  Mr. Nicoski attended college at the University of Minnesota in the Applied Business Program and the Carlson School of Management. Mr. Nicoski holds a Chartered Market Technician designation and is a member of the Market Technician’s Association.

Ross LaDuke is a Global Technical Strategist for Vermilion and has oversight and responsibility for managing the firm’s international research products and technical strategy. Ross was previously employed by JNBA Financial Advisors where he was responsible for trading and rebalancing accounts, analyzing and reporting on current and potential individual equity and mutual fund holdings, and supporting the firm’s overall investment philosophy. His previous experience includes an internship at Split Rock Private Trading & Wealth Management. Ross is a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA), and holder of the organization’s Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation.

Ross is a graduate of the University of Minnesota-Duluth, Labovitz School of Business and Economics. Ross earned a bachelor’s degree in economics, as well as minors in financial planning and financial markets.

Vermilion Research was founded in 2006 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Vermilion’s research team has a combined 80 year of experience in the analysis and management of investment securities.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is privileged, confidential and protected from disclosure. Any unauthorized disclosure distribution, dissemination or copying of this material or any attachment is strictly prohibited; such information, whether derived from Vermilion Vermilion Capital Management, LLC or from any oral or written communication by way of opinion, advice, or otherwise with a principal of the company is not warranted in any manner whatsoever, is for the use of our customers only and may be obtained from internal and external research sources considered to be reliable. It is not necessarily complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed by Vermilion Capital Management, LLC, its operating entity or the principals therein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase of any future or security referred to in Vermilion research publications. Principals of Vermilion Capital Management, LLC may or may not hold, or be short of, securities discussed herein, or of any other securities, at any time. The foregoing also expressly applies to any trial subscription.

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and is being posted with Vermilion Capital Management, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Vermilion Capital Management, LLC and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24021




Technical Analysis

Chaikin Analytics - The Technology Sector Weighs on the Market as Semiconductors Feel the Impact of Trade Tensions - By Dan Russo


Key Points

  • Technology Stocks Lead the Market Lower as Semis Come Under Pressure...
  • ...But the Sector is Now Oversold in an Uptrend
  • Energy Lags Despite the Rally in Crude Oil
  • Mid-Caps Offer Yield and Relative Performance
  • Futures Point to a Higher Open Today

 

Key Chart - iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF – IWR

The iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF (IWR) has a Bullish Chaikin Power Gauge ETF rating and has been leading the SPY since January. The fund is oversold based on our OB / OS Indicator and Chaikin Money Flow has been bullish since the start of the year. IWR has found support at the rising long-term trend line and odds favor a move higher from here. In addition, IWR has a dividend yield of 4.65%.

Pre-Market Movers

Advancers: HBI (8%), DVN (3%), LEG (3%), OLED (3%), MYL (2%)

Decliners: KSS (10%), NDSN (3%), TSLA (3%), M (2%), KNX (2%)

 

Today’s Chaikin Signals - S&P 500

  • Oversold Buy: CDNS, DAL, FBHS, IP, WRK
  • Momentum Breakout: NOC, TRV
  • Money Flow Buy: ARNC, DRI
  • Relative Strength Breakout: FISV, JPM, PM
  • Overbought Sell: JBHT, ROL, VZ
  • Money Flow Sell: MAC, NKE
  • Relative Strength Breakdown: NTAP, VLO

 

Stock of the Day

 

Stock of the Day - Arconic Inc. (ARNC) - Very Bullish Rating

Arconic Inc. (ARNC) has a Very Bullish Chaikin Power Gauge Rating and has recently begun to outperform the SPY. The stock is oversold based on our OB / OS Indicator and Chaikin Money Flow is bullish. ARNC is consolidating a strong move higher following their earnings report and triggered a Money Flow Buy Signal today. Above $20, ARNC is likely to continue to move higher.

 

Click to Read the Full Report

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Chaikin Analytics is a membership service that provides groundbreaking research tools to help find winning stocks and ETFs and drop losing ones ahead of market shifts. The proven Chaikin Power Gauge ratings are the centerpiece of Chaikin Analytics.

You can start using the Chaikin Power Gauge ratings today when you sign up for the free PowerFeed newsletter. Click here to sign up now.

Chaikin Analytics, LLC, and its parent Chaikin Holdings, LLC (the “Company”) are not registered as a securities broker dealer or investment advisor with either the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority.The Company is not responsible for trades executed by users of their reports, analytics, web sites or mobile apps based on the information included herein. The information presented in the Company’s reports, analytics, etc. does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any financial instrument nor is it intended as an endorsement of any security or investment. The information is generic by nature and is not personalized to the specific financial situation of any individual.The user bears complete responsibility for their own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The alerts and signals within the Company’s website and products are for information only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. The Company shall not be liable for any losses incurred as a result of either the accuracy or timing of the alerts. The Company is not affiliated with any other organization and is not responsible for any losses incurred because of any errors or delays in transmission of orders to the user’s account with any other organization.

Disclaimer CFTC RULE 4.41: Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Chaikin Analytics LLC and is being posted with Chaikin Analytics LLC 's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Chaikin Analytics LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24016




Technical Analysis

Asbury Research - Chart of the Week


Support/Resistance & Trend: NASDAQ 100 (NDX)
INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH, TESTING MAJOR RESISTANCE

The chart below shows that the major trend in NDX is up as the index is above its 200-day MA, but it is still trying to exceed its 7701 October 2018 all-time high following a failed late April attempt.  If NDX cannot rise and remain above 7701, the overall stock market may not have the necessary leadership for a sustained advance.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report, which includes all 10 of this week’s Keys to US market direction, by subscribing via the Interactive Brokers platform or through Asbury Research.

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Asbury Research provides investors with a forward looking, strategic forecast of the US financial landscape 1-2 quarters out, and then defines specific tactical and actionable investment opportunities within that larger forecast via a unique and proprietary multi-layered approach that includes quantitative, technical, and behavioral analysis.  Our focus is on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and economically influential commodities like gold, crude oil, and copper, but our scope is global as we integrate our database of worldwide inter-market relationships to add breadth, depth and accuracy to our investment conclusions. Interactive Brokers customers can subscribe to Asbury Research in Account Management.

This material is from Asbury Research and is being posted with Asbury Research’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Asbury Research.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


24017




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Nasdaq100 (NQ) Weekly MACD Trying to Negatively Cross


Nasdaq100 (NQ) Weekly MACD Trying to Negatively Cross

The Nasdaq100 (NQ) slid more than 1.5% yesterday, and is trying to bounce just above a precarious triangle support (on the 4hr chart) and uptrend support (on the daily and weekly chart).  Significantly, NQ is testing the 23.6% Fib retrace of the Jan-Apr rally, and appears winded on the dead cat bounce and poised in the next day or so to resume the slide since early May...Click here to read the full analysis of this market as well as on S&P500, Cocoa

 

Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Jun19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


24008




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The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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