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Soft Commodities

US Global Investors - The Hunger for Muni Bonds (And Gold!) Is Real


Another Tax Day has come and gone. Although it might be some time before we get the full picture of what Americans earned and paid in taxes last year, it’s probably safe to assume that the top 1 percent of earners shouldered most of the U.S. tax burden.

In 2016, the most recent year of available data, the top 1 percent was responsible for over 37 percent of all income taxes. Compare that to the bottom 50 percent, which was responsible for about 3 percent of all taxes.

Of course, the highest earners also paid the highest average income tax rate of 26.9 percent, which is seven times more than the rate faced by the bottom 50 percent.

This was the first year that Americans paid taxes under President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. And yet many filers—especially those living in high income tax states such as New York, California and New Jersey—saw their payments rise significantly due to state and local tax (SALT) deductions being capped at $10,000.

This change has been a boon for municipal bonds, which are exempt from taxes not only at the federal level but also, in most cases, state and local levels.

Muni bond funds, in fact, just had their best quarter of inflows since 2009, as you can see below.

According to Morningstar data, tax-free muni bonds saw more than $8.8 billion in net flows in the three months ended March 31, beating U.S. equity funds ($6.2 billion) and international equity funds ($1.3 billion). This tells me that investors were seeking stability, as well as a strategy to counteract the changes to the tax code.

Investors Prefer Actively Managed Muni Bond Funds

Actively managed muni funds were more popular than passively managed funds, including ETFs. Active funds attracted $7.5 billion, more than five and a half times more than passive muni funds, which saw only $1.3 billion in net flows, according to Morningstar.

As I told you in a previous post, I think the reason investors prefer active muni funds is that they want a manager who knows how to conduct deep credit research, adjust for duration and monitor for risks and opportunities. You don’t get that with a passive fund.

Muni Supply Has Tightened

Trump’s tax law supports the outlook for muni demand in more ways than one. The supply of municipal debt has been restricted thanks to the elimination of a category known as “advanced refunding issues,” which in years past accounted for about a fifth of muni bond issuances annually.

Any casual student of economics knows that tighter supply, combined with increased demand, creates investment opportunities. And since the tax law went into effect in January 2018, muni bonds have outperformed both 10-year Treasuries and investment-grade corporate debt.

On a final note, I should point out that munis have a history of doing well in late-cycle environments, which we seem to be in right now. This, along with flat issuance and stronger demand for tax-free income, should help the asset class remain resilient throughout the year and beyond.

Gold “Lives Up to the Hype”

Another asset whose supply is expected to tighten in the coming years is gold, due mainly to shrinking exploration budgets and the lack of large discoveries. As I told Streetwise Reports last week, the gold mining industry hasn’t seen any technological breakthroughs as there have been in oil and gas with fracking.

Also, like munis, demand for the yellow metal remains strong and should continue to strengthen as incomes grow in emerging markets such as China, India and Turkey.

Last week, the price of gold fell to a 2019 low of around $1,270 an ounce, as the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up, and the U.S. dollar stayed at elevated levels.

Nevertheless, some analysts continue to see this as an “extremely attractive environment,” in the words of British banking firm Standard Chartered.

“We are very constructive on gold, both within our strategy teams and within our commodity research teams,” Standard Chartered’s Eric Robertson told Bloomberg. “Even with the recovery that we’ve seen in equity prices and nominal bond yields over the last few weeks, real or inflation-adjusted yields remain extremely low. And that’s a better indicator for gold.”

In a report last week titled “Gold lives up to the hype as a safe haven,” research firm Capital Economics said it sees gold rallying to $1,400 an ounce or more by mid-2019 on equity weakness.

“Given that we expect the S&P 500 to drop by roughly a fifth this year, we think gold’s safe-haven credentials will soon come to the fore again,” says commodities economist Ross Strachan, who goes on to explain that in seven out of eight times since 1990 in which the S&P declined more than 10 percent over a prolonged period, the price of gold rose 7.2 percent on average. 

Venezuela’s $400 Million Sale Weighed on Gold

Gold traded down following the news on Monday that Venezuela sold as much as $400 million of the metal, the South American country’s only remaining liquid asset. This comes after Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido in February urged the U.K. not to send cash to President Nicolas Madura upon sale of the country’s gold reserves, held in the Bank of England’s (BoE) vaults.

The recent sale could mean that President Maduro has found a way to sidestep sanctions, according to Bloomberg.

The report also points out that Venezuela’s central bank “has been operating with what it calls an emergency team of only about 100 workers of about 2,000 since a power outage left its headquarters without running water.” What Maduro has done to this once prosperous country and its people is nothing short of tragic.

In any case, the gold market should stabilize once Venezuela is done selling this quarter.

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content.

The S&P Municipal Bond Index is a broad, market value-weighted index that seeks to measure the performance of the U.S. municipal bond market. The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index is a one-security index comprising the most recently issued 10-year U.S. Treasury note or bond. The S&P 500 Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, a sub-index of the S&P 500 Bond Index, seeks to measure the performance of U.S. corporate debt issued by constituents in the S&P 500 with an investment-grade rating. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The S&P 500 Index is a float-adjusted market-cap weighted index. It's calculated by taking the sum of the adjusted market capitalization of all S&P 500 stocks and then dividing it with an index divisor, which is a proprietary figure developed by Standard & Poor's.

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Originally Posted on April 22, 2019

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23722




Aktien

McAlinden Research Partners - Drone Deliveries Finally Cleared for Take-Off In the US


The efficiency drones promise for the industrial and commercial supply chain is unprecedented. This month, 2 major US drone projects received clearance from the FAA to begin dropping off packages to actual customers, with similar launches happening around the world.

 

Wing, an offshoot of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, has become the first drone operator to receive government approval as an airline. For Wing, gaining the FAA’s approval took months, but Bloomberg notes that the process is likely to be a lot quicker for future drone delivery companies. UPS and autonomous drone technology firm Matternet are also working on launching their own drone "airline" that will use the robotic aircraft to carry medical samples. The drone of choice (an M2 quadcopter) can only carry up to 5lbs at distances as long as 12.5 miles, but it can complete a flight in about three minutes, versus the 30 or so it takes human drivers to make it in average daily traffic.

 

For all of this to work, a new system called UTM (Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management), jointly developed by NASA, the FAA and private-sector businesses, including Wing, will govern drone flights. While the major focus of drone delivery is currently lightweight consumer goods, usually food, beverages, or medical products, it is a huge stepping stone that was miles away only a year ago for most companies operating in the US. Investment in drone projects should continue strongly through the foreseeable future as big tech and delivery giants battle it out.

 

Investors can gain access to drone tech via the ETFMG Drone Economy Strategy ETF (IFLY).

Drones vs S&P 500

 

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McAlinden Research Partner’s (MRP) strives to identify change-driven, thematic investment ideas, following a proprietary methodology developed by 50 plus year Wall Street veteran Joe McAlinden, former CIO of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Chief Strategist of Dillon Read & CEO of Argus Research. Subscribers to MRP receive the “Daily Intelligence Briefing” (DIBS) report which provides a deep dive into subjects MRP exploring, in its quest for alpha generating themes.

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This material is from McAlinden Research Partners (MRP) and is being posted with McAlinden Research Partners (MRP) permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or McAlinden Research Partners (MRP) and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23721




Macro

Briefing.com - Q1 GDP Pops, Yet Stocks Remain Stuck


The earnings parade continues, with Amazon.com (AMZN)Intel (INTC)Starbucks (SBUX)Ford (F)American Airlines (AAL)Colgate-Palmolive (CL)Chevron (CVX), and ExxonMobil (XOM) among some of the luminaries that have reported results since yesterday's close.

The reaction to those reports, and others, has been mixed at best. 

The S&P futures are up two points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading less than 0.1% below fair value.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 23 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Amazon and Ford are trading nicely higher, as their earnings results and guidance, in aggregate, were pleasing.  Conversely, Intel and ExxonMobil are trading noticeably lower as their earnings results and guidance, in aggregate, were disappointing.

You can keep going down the line and it will be a similar picture.  Lots of company-specific responses, but no real market-moving thoughts in the responses other than perhaps the idea that the good news has been priced in to a large extent and that the bad news is presumably only temporary.

Hence, you get a market that spins its wheels.

The U.S. economy, apparently, wasn't spinning its wheels in the first quarter.  It shifted into a high gear and sped out of the gate.

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%), according to the advance estimate for first quarter GDP.  The GDP Price Deflator was up just 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) after increasing 1.7% in the fourth quarter.

The key takeaway from the report is that it reinforced the market's Goldilocks view of the U.S. economy, which is exhibiting solid growth and muted inflation pressures.

The biggest contributor to the gain in first quarter GDP was net exports.  They added 1.03 percentage points, followed by gross private domestic investment, which added 0.92 percentage points, and then personal consumption expenditures, which contributed 0.82 percentage points.

The change in private inventories accounted for 0.65 percentage points of the contribution from gross private domestic investment.  Real final sales of domestic product, which exclude the change in inventories, were up 2.5%.  That was a smidgen above the prior ten-quarter average of 2.4%.

This was a good report, but remarkably, it hasn't had much impact on the futures market, nor has it undercut the Treasury market.  On the contrary, Treasuries have rallied following the report.  The yield on the 10-yr note is down three basis points to 2.50%, while the yield on the 2-yr note is also down three basis points to 2.28%.

That could be a function of expected capital flight, as it is quite clear that the U.S. economy is faring quite well relative to other developed economies, namely Japan and Europe.  We say "expected," because the euro is up against the dollar at the moment while the yen is unchanged.

In any case, with rates remaining low and global growth in question, there is a case to be made still for growth stocks to exhibit relative strength.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

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Briefing In Play offers live market-moving analysis, earnings and news coverage, broker ratings changes, as well as comprehensive economic coverage and commentary. Briefing in Play Plus includes everything in Briefing In Play, and features investment idea generation and in-depth analysis. Briefing Trader includes everything in Briefing In Play Plus, and features live trading ideas with specific entry/exit points as well as access to the new streaming audio feature, Trader Audio.

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This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23720




Aktien

Interactive Advisors - Intel's Guidance: Not So Good- Big Test For Semis


Thursday was a dull day, with the S&P 500 doing a whole bunch of nothing. Even Amazon is doing nothing after results. Now, Intel, that is another story – its shares are down after lowering its guidance.  I should have stuck with my call over the weekend. It happens, we aren’t perfect, and we can be wrong.  I try my best.

Intel - INTC

Intel has pretty solid support at roughly $52.50. I feel like the same thing happened last quarter with the stock falling sharply after results and rising in the days after.  That’s because it did.

Amazon – AMZN

Amazon is up slightly, and the results were good. The guidance was a bit light; I’m not sure that the results change much. But I will look closer over the coming days.

Netflix – NFLX

I’m not sure why Netflix has been so weak the last couple of days. It could be the stock is just stock in this channel, and now it is moving back to the lower range.

Facebook – FB

Facebook gave back some of its gains, but the good news is that it continues to hang around technical support at $194.50

 

Semis – SMH

Friday will be a test for the semis, and with Intel and Texas Instrument giving pretty bad guidance, the SMH will be put to the test. It needs to hold this $114 level to avoid a drop to $111.

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Originally Posted on April 25, 2019

Michael Kramer and clients off Mott Capital own Netflix

Michael Kramer manages the Thematic Growth portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors, an online investing marketplace and a division of Interactive Brokers Group. He is also CEO of Mott Capital Management, a registered investment advisor.

This material is not intended as investment advice. Interactive Advisors or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.

This material is from Interactive Advisors and is being posted with Interactive Advisors’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23719




Aktien

Benzinga - The Street's Mixed Reaction To eBay's Q1 - By Jayson Derrick


Online marketplace eBay Inc (EBAY) reported Tuesday first-quarter results that came in better than expected — but not all Street analysts are impressed with the print.

The Analysts

  • Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak maintained an Equal-weight rating on eBay with a price target lifted from $33 to $34.50.
  • Canaccord Genuity's Michael Graham maintained at Hold, price target lifted from $33 to $38.
  • D.A. Davidson's Tom Forte maintained at Buy, unchanged $44 price target.
  • Raymond James' Aaron Kessler maintained at Outperform, price target lifted from $39 to $44.
  • Benchmark's Daniel Kurnos maintained at Buy, price target lifted from $42 to $45.

Morgan Stanley: Marketplace Is Deteriorating

Throughout the first quarter, eBay's core marketplace deteriorated as US gross merchandise volume fell 6 percent year-over-year versus a 1-percent decline in the prior quarter, Nowak said in a note. Meanwhile, eBay's global GMV was 1-percent lower year-over-year (excluding FX) versus expectations of 1-percent (ex-FX) growth.

Part of eBay's poor marketplace performance can be attributed to management's prior decision to strategically lower ROI promotional spend in favor of more profitable customer growth, the analyst said. While this supports immediate-term metrics, the company needs to invest to grow over the longer-term, he said. 

eBay continues to compete against much larger, faster-growing and smarter competitors that offer consumers superior pricing, Nowak said. This makes eBay's core marketplace business "a structurally declining asset in a growth industry," the analyst said. 

Canaccord: 4 Key Highlights

Graham named four key takeaways from eBay's first-quarter report:

  • Active buyer growth was steady at 4 percent, but marketplace GMV fell 6 percent.
  • The company is showing progress in managed payments, as its platform has so far enabled $363 million of GMV.
  • eBay bought back $1.5 billion of its stock in the first quarter, bringing its total to $12.8 billion (25 percent of outstanding shares) since separating from Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL).
  • Management lifted the mid-point of 2019 revenue guidance from $10.8 to $10.9 billion.

DA Davidson: Activist Investors Deserve Credit

Exiting eBay's first-quarter report, it's apparent the involvement of activist investors "brought out the best" in the company, Forte said in a research report. For example, activists pushed for a dividend, increased buybacks, studying the sale of StubHub and/or Classifieds and a commitment to improving operating results, the analyst said. 

Encouragingly, eBay's beat-and-raise report is also a reflection of management's efforts to improve the business prior to the public involvement of activist investors, Forte said, adding that investors should be "very impressed" with the print. 

Raymond James: 3 Positives, 2 Negatives

The eBay earnings report includes three positive takeaways and two negative readouts, Kessler said in a research report.

On the positive side:

  • Non-GAAP operating margins improved 190 basis points from last year due to low ROI marketing and good expense control.
  • Growth in marketplace revenue can be traced to strength in promoted listings, which rose 110 percent from last year to $65 million, and lower ROI marketing investment (contra-revenue).
  • Management announced a "modest" lift to 2019 revenue guidance.

Kessler named two negative readouts:

  • U.S. GMV declined 7 percent from a reduction in marketing and an internet sales tax.
  • StubHub GMV fell 2 percent due to a weaker college football championship game and Super Bowl.

Benchmark: Revving The 'Profit Engine'

The e-commerce company beat estimates on the revenue line by $60 million, which can be attributed to a nearly 80-basis point year-over-year increase in its marketplace take rate, Kurnos said in a research report. eBay still beat expectations despite an almost $700-million miss in GMV, he said. 

eBay said it saw a significant decline in contra-revenue as a primary driver along with higher AOV sales, the analyst said.

At the same time, there was no near-term impact on active buyer growth, which matched Benchmark's 180-million estimate.

Bottom line: eBay bears are likely to point out inefficient spend and question its ability to reaccelerate growth, Kurnos said. The performance in the first quarter is likely to result in a sustainable higher take rate, along with a "healthier" GMV base from which eBay can grow, the analyst said.   

Price Action

Shares of eBay were trading down 1.06 percent at $38.11 at the close Thursday.

 

Latest Ratings for EBAY

Date

Firm

Action

From

To

Apr 2019

 

Maintains

 

Equal-Weight

Apr 2019

 

Maintains

Buy

Buy

Apr 2019

 

Maintains

Hold

Hold


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© 2019 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Benzinga is a fast-growing financial media outlet that empowers investors with market-moving content. The site also manages Benzinga Pro, a streaming platform with real-time headlines, data and actionable alerts. Sign up for a free trial and profit with faster news now.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Benzinga and is being posted with Benzinga's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Benzinga and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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